FUTURCAST: New Product Forecasting Solution

Forecasts for new products may be developed either by:

  1. Analogy; looking at the sales of similar products at the time of their launch, modeling the underlying diffusion process and extrapolating the pattern given the expected peak sale

    or by calculating the

  2. Market Potential; applying a segmentation approach driven by either a population or a location of reference such as ‘point of sales’.

The FUTURCAST tool box contains the necessary means to apply both methodologies.

On the one hand, the standard statistical tools contained in FUTURCAST Forecasting Book offers several types of diffusion modeling alternatives to compute a new product forecast by analogy and thereafter superimpose a specific seasonality pattern.

On the other hand, the FUTURCAST New Product module provides a database application software that allows a user to develop a new product forecast starting with either the population of an area segmented by age, gender, and other characteristics; or by focusing on the market penetration at, for example, point of sales, that are grouped by size and/or other features.

FUTURCAST: New Product Software

FUTURCAST New Product is a specialized stand alone software that differentiates innovative new pharmaceutical products from those of all the other industries. Although the software is particularly best suited for patient-based forecasting, it is applicable for technological forecasting and numerous other applications.

The software innovates in several different ways. It provides:

  • A universal Java user interface
  • A built-in relational database
  • Yearly or monthly forecasting for up to the next 30 years
  • Pre-loaded area population data segmented by gender and age groups
  • Includes the FUTURCAST Expert Forecasting Engine for historical data extrapolation, reality validation, and up-take quantitative analysis of analogue data
  • Multiple export functions to Excel
  • A complete package with all that is needed to store new scenarios, modify existing ones, and transfer forecasts to an ERP platform

 

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